Caution: Is NASCAR now in show business?
Autoracing Betting Lines
06/15/2010 - Brooklyn, MI (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Debris, or not debris? That is the question NASCAR driver Denny Hamlin has been asking after a late-race caution for debris possibly cost him a victory in Sunday's race at Michigan International Speedway.
Hamlin put on one of the most dominating performances of his Sprint Cup Series career at Michigan. Leading a race-high 123 laps, Hamlin held a near 10-second advantage before NASCAR displayed the yellow flag for what appeared to be rubber-like debris on the track with 18 laps remaining.
Unlike last week's race at Pocono, Michigan featured no major drama, at least until that time. Two of the four cautions were for debris. Perhaps the only theatrical moments at Michigan were actors Adam Sandler and Kevin James providing a rather entertaining command to start engines and Red Bull Racing teammates Casey Mears and Scott Speed making contact and crashing one-quarter of the way into the 400-mile race.
So why not throw in a little bit of drama towards the end of a somewhat boring race?
"I understand this is show business," Hamlin said. "I didn't see any debris...We typically get them every single week. I'm not going to say it's accepted, but what can you do?"
While Hamlin debated NASCAR's reason for the caution, second-place finisher Kasey Kahne felt it was justified.
"It was a big piece of debris back there, and I saw it," Kahne said. "I felt good at the time, because I thought we might have a shot."
After the final restart with 14 laps to go, Hamlin pulled away from Kahne and then cruised to his series-leading fifth victory of the season. By the way, his margin of victory was 1.2 seconds, which was a heck of a lot better than a 10-second-plus blowout.
"If I don't win the race because maybe I get a bad restart or something, then probably I'm angry because I feel like NASCAR changed the outcome of the race," Hamlin added.
Michigan continued an ongoing debate on debris cautions that occur late in races. Are they warranted, or is NASCAR trying to liven up things in hopes of a thrilling finish?
NASCAR needs to thoroughly define to teams and fans its policy on debris cautions, especially ones that come in the closing laps.
Otherwise, the question of whether NASCAR is a sport or entertainment industry will remain prevalent.
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MySportsbook.com week 1 NFL lines
Now that the 2008 NFL schedule is finally out, it is only matter-of-course for lines on “Week 1” to follow. Of course MySportsbook.com is the first to churn out odds for the NFL’s inaugural week for the upcoming season. Expect a lot of fireworks the first Thursday night of the season as the defending champion Indianapolis Colts face off against the surprise of the 2008 season, the New Orleans Saints. These teams were ranked #1 and #3 in the NFL respectively a season ago so a high scoring affair could be in order. As of now, the Colts will be giving 6 points to the Saints; keep in mind the Saints were one of the better road teams last season going 6-3 SU and 7-2 ATS. The first Monday night of the season will again provide a “double feature”. Coming off a disappointing season, the Cincinnati Bengals will look to get back to playoffs and improve their public image as they take on the AFC North favorite Baltimore Ravens. The second game features a couple of teams that haven’t had too much success recently but each could make some noise if the NFC is as weak as it was last year as the San Francisco 49ers host the Arizona Cardinals. The most interesting game of the opening week will feature the NFC champion Bears as they hit the road to take on the NFL’s top team during last year’s regular season, the San Diego Chargers.
MySportsbook.com Week 1 odds:
Saints +6 @ Colts -6
Falcons @ Vikings (pick ‘em)
Panthers @ Rams (pick ‘em)
Broncos -3.5 @ Bills +3.5
Chiefs -1 @ Texans +1
Dolphins +3 @ Redskins -3
Patriots -5 @ Jets +5
Eagles -3.5 @ Packers +3.5
Steelers -4 @ Browns +4
Titans +6 @ Jaguars -6
Bears +6 @ Chargers -6
Lions +3 @ Raiders -3
Bucs +6.5 @ Seahawks -6.5
Giants +4 @ Cowboys -4
Ravens +3 @ Bengals -3
Cardinals +3 @ 49ers -3
Super Bowl line (2008)
NFC +6.5 vs. AFC -6.5
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Betting Football
NFL Football Betting OnlineIs there such a thing as a trap game in the NFL?
I once asked that question to Pete Korner, who at the time was office manager and a senior linesmaker for Las Vegas Sports Consultants.
Korner almost ripped my head off. There is no such thing as a trap game, he loudly berated me. It’s a myth. The numbers are made using power ratings, he said.
There are trap games, though. They just might not be what you think. The perception is of a good team, say Philadelphia, laying a small number against New Orleans.
Using the highly-respected power ranking from The Gold Sheet, you’d find the Eagles with a power rating of 4 and the Saints at 8. When you factor the game being played in New Orleans, you could see why the line opened so short at less than a field goal.
For some, this makes it enticing to take the Eagles. That’s not a real trap game, though.
A real trap game, says professional gambler Dave Malinsky, is thinking you’re getting value betting a bad team, which brings us to the Oakland Raiders-Denver Broncos matchup.
The Raiders are +15 in this long-standing division rivalry. Denver is on a short week having dispatched Baltimore Monday. However, the Raiders haven’t covered the spread their last 10 games.
Many bettors don’t trust the Raiders to give a full effort. Few think much of Art Shell and his Oakland’s coaching staff.
So oddsmakers have to do something to make Oakland attractive if they hope to get equal action.
Now Malinsky is a value shopper. But he won’t touch the Raiders even getting more than two touchdowns.
“I try to eliminate the undisciplined, unfocused teams because they’re the ones most likely to suffer the bad beats,” he said.
Near the top of Malinsky’s list of stay-away teams is the Miami Dolphins, who have yet to cover a spread this season.
“Whatever you think of Nick Saban, you have to look at the penalties and turnovers,” Malinsky said.
It’s easy to point out the Dolphins failed to get the money this past week against New England because Olindo Mare missed a field goal and had another field goal blocked. But even though the Dolphins outgained the Patriots, 283-213, they committed eight penalties.
Bad teams not only cost themselves victories, but pointspread covers as well. The Arizona Cardinals and Green Bay Packers are two more examples.
The Cardinals couldn’t have been in a better position this past Sunday, up 14-0 at home against a mediocre Kansas City Chiefs squad. But they couldn’t hold it. The Packers got a push against St. Louis, but also could have won losing by three when Brett Favre fumbled at the St. Louis 11-yard line with 44 seconds left.
“The Packers were in a position to beat Philadelphia, too,” Malinsky said. “But they couldn’t even cover double digits.
“These teams just make mistakes and it costs you … they always will look good from a value standpoint. They really will. But that’s the trap.”
Houston and Tennessee rank among the six-worst teams. Malinsky wouldn’t be afraid to take either of these teams, however, if the price were high enough.
The Texans are bad, Malinsky said, but they have some discipline. The Titans showed they could not only come up with an outstanding game plan, but execute it as well, losing by one to the Colts on the road as an 18 ?-point underdog this past Sunday.
“Jeff Fisher is a worker,” Malinsky said of the Titans coach. “I’m not sure how hard Art Shell wants to work when he gets out of bed.”
Fisher, though, could be out as Tennessee coach after this season. Is he still worth backing in the right spot, with the right price, as a lame duck coach?
“It’s in his nature to keep working hard and not worry about any possible lame duck status,” Malinsky said. “He’s coaching for his resume.”
Note: Monday night game will be picked Monday. Lines used are from football betting lines.