Desperate Falcons, Fading Panthers Battle at Georgia Dome
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Atlanta Falcons hope to take advantage of a Carolina Panthers team in disarray and record a much-needed victory when the two rivals square off this Sunday at the Georgia Dome.
This late-December matchup was thought to be the game that would decide the NFC South champion heading into this season, but things haven't quite gone to plan for either team. While New Orleans has run away with the division crown, the Falcons are battling for their playoff lives and the Panthers -- the consensus preseason favorite in the South -- have seen their postseason chances basically go up in smoke because of a current four-game losing streak.
Atlanta is currently tied with the New York Giants for the NFC's final Wild Card berth, but the Giants own the tiebreaker by virtue of a 27-14 win over the Falcons back in October. And with a tough game on the road against the resurgent Philadelphia Eagles looming next week, a win against the reeling Panthers is vital to Atlanta's playoff fortunes.
The Falcons weren't in this predicament at midseason, when the club got off to a 5-2 start and stood in the thick of the NFC South race. However, losses in five of its last seven games, including last Saturday's 38-28 setback to Dallas, have put Atlanta's once-promising season on the brink.
A performance out of Michael Vick like the four-touchdown effort the exciting but erratic quarterback produced through the air against the Cowboys would go a long way towards strengthening the Falcons' position. The athletic signal- caller wound up leaving that game in the final stages because of a groin strain, although Vick is expected to be back under center for this one.
Carolina finds itself in even more dire straits than Atlanta. The disappointing Panthers come in with four straight losses under their belts and suffered a humiliating 37-3 shellacking at home to Pittsburgh last week, the franchise's most lopsided defeat since a 41-0 debacle against the Falcons in 2002.
The two most recent losses came without the services of quarterback Jake Delhomme, who has a ligament tear in his right thumb and is unlikely to play again this week. That would still leave the offense in the shaky hands of Chris Weinke, who has guided the Panthers to victory just once in 17 career starts.
SERIES HISTORY
The Falcons lead the all-time series with Carolina, 15-8, including a 20-6 road victory when the teams met in Week 1. The Panthers swept last year's home-and-home, claiming a 24-6 decision in Charlotte in Week 13 and a 44-11 rout at the Georgia Dome in Week 17. Prior to 2005, Atlanta had won nine of their last 10 overall against the Panthers, including their own home-and-home sweep in 2004.
Carolina's John Fox enters Sunday's contest with a 3-6 career mark against Atlanta, while the Falcons' Jim Mora is 3-2 against both Fox and Carolina as a head coach.
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. FALCONS DEFENSE
It's been a struggle for Weinke (593 passing yards, 1 TD, 4 INT) since the former Heisman Trophy winner was forced into action because of Delhomme's injury. The 34-year-old, who hadn't played regularly since his rookie campaign of 2001, did throw for a career-best 423 yards in Carolina's 27-13 loss to the Giants in Week 14, but also had three costly picks which contributed to his team's demise. Weinke then failed to move the offense last week against Pittsburgh, although he didn't get a whole lot of support from a mediocre and banged-up offensive line that's been a sore spot for the Panthers all year long. Carolina ranks just 27th in the league in scoring (16.4 ppg), partly because game-breaking wide receiver Steve Smith (76 receptions, 1,081 yards, 6 TD) has been the offense's lone legitimate big-play threat. Veteran Keyshawn Johnson (66 receptions, 770 yards, 4 TD) has also had a good season opposite Smith, and Drew Carter (28 receptions, 357 yards, 3 TD) has emerged as a reliable option as the third receiver. Carter sprained an ankle during the Pittsburgh game, however, and could be unavailable on Sunday.
Weinke's numbers could very well improve against an Atlanta defense that has surrendered the second-most passing yards in the league (236.2 ypg) and was powerless in its attempts to stop Dallas' Tony Romo, who rolled up 278 yards and completed 22 of 29 throws last week. The secondary does possess a Pro Bowl player in DeAngelo Hall (54 tackles, 4 INT, 10 PBU), although the cocky corner is coming off a rough outing against the Cowboys in which he was beaten for a pair of touchdowns by Terrell Owens. The beleaguered unit may get a boost by the hopeful return of cornerback Jason Webster (49 tackles, 2 INT), who has missed six straight games with a groin injury but is now back practicing. The Falcons have compiled a respectable 34 sacks on the season, and should be able to pressure the immobile Weinke, who has been sacked seven times in his two starts, provided brittle end John Abraham (17 tackles, 4 sacks) can be effective after tearing a ligament in his left thumb last week. The pass-rush specialist had a monster game in Atlanta's Week 1 win over the Panthers, producing six tackles, two sacks and a pair of forced fumbles.
A contributing factor to Carolina's offensive woes has been the season-long dormant status of a running game that played a key role in the club's run to last year's NFC title game. The Panthers rank 27th out of 32 NFL teams in rushing yards (97.9 ypg) despite having a pair of quality halfbacks in DeShaun Foster (716 rushing yards, 2 TD) and rookie DeAngelo Williams (412 yards, 1 TD). The problems can again be traced back to the play up front, where season- ending injuries to center Justin Hartwig, tackle Travelle Wharton and now guard Mike Wahle, who was placed on IR Wednesday because of a torn right labrum, have wreaked havoc on the unit. The makeshift line couldn't effectively block the Steelers last week, as Carolina mustered only 43 yards on the ground.
Atlanta has been solid in defending the run, as the Falcons are allowing just 102.2 rushing yards per game (10th overall) on the season. A deep linebacking corps led by five-time Pro Bowler Keith Brooking (120 tackles, 2.5 sacks) is the strength of the defense. Strongside starter Michael Boley (63 tackles, 2 sacks) has enjoyed a breakout second season and the oft-injured Edgerton Hartwell (21 tackles, 1 sack) has been a stabilizing presence in the middle when able to play. The offseason additions of beefy tackle Grady Jackson (31 tackles) and strong safety Lawyer Milloy (86 tackles, 1 sack) have also bolstered a run defense that was one of the league's worst a year ago.
FALCONS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
The Falcons emphasize the run more than any NFL club, and are headed for their third consecutive team rushing title. Atlanta averages an impressive 192.6 yards per game on the ground, a number that's aided by Vick's elusiveness out of the pocket. The dynamic playmaker needs just 10 yards to become the first quarterback in league history to rush for 1,000 in a season, but his effectiveness as a scrambler may be hindered by his injury. Veteran Warrick Dunn (1,053 yards, 4 TD) eclipsed the 1,000-yard mark for the third straight year in the Dallas game, although the diminutive back hasn't had more than 87 yards in any of the team's last nine contests. Speedy rookie Jerious Norwood (550 yards, 2 TD) is averaging a healthy 6.5 yards per rush, and should be available to contribute after sitting out last week due to a sore knee. Atlanta racked up a whopping 252 yards on the Panthers in the season opener, with Dunn amassing 132 on 29 carries.
Carolina ranked fourth overall in rushing yards allowed (91.6 ypg) in 2005 but is yielding more than 20 yards per game in that area this season. The season- ending loss of middle linebacker Dan Morgan has had a crippling effect on the defense, as ex-Falcon Chris Draft (88 tackles, 4 sacks) has been steady but unspectacular in his place. Tackle Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) was named to the Pro Bowl on Tuesday, but that honor may have been based more on reputation then performance. The fastest member of the front seven is second- year linebacker Thomas Davis (84 tackles, 1.5 sacks), who likely will draw the unenviable assignment of trying to contain Vick. If the Panthers are to succeed on Sunday, the defense must improve on the 159 rushing yards it surrendered in last week's defeat to Pittsburgh.
Atlanta's prowess running the ball is well-documented, but the team sits on the opposite end of the spectrum in the passing game. The Falcons are averaging a league-low 147 yards per contest through the air, although Vick (2,284 passing yards, 11 INT) has thrown for a career-best 19 touchdowns this year. He's only completed 52.8 percent of his passes, however, with the low figure partially due to a season-long rash of drops from the receivers. Vick's favorite target remains Pro Bowl tight end Alge Crumpler (677 receiving yards, 7 TD), who leads Atlanta with 47 catches. The offense would greatly benefit from added consistency from the wideout group of Michael Jenkins (36 receptions, 408 yards, 7 TD), Roddy White (25 receptions, 404 yards) and Ashley Lelie (25 receptions, 390 yards, 1 TD), all former No. 1 picks. Jenkins and unheralded fullback Justin Griffith (22 receptions, 3 TD) have been effective within the red zone, though, with Griffith snaring two of Vick's four TD tosses versus Dallas.
The Panthers stand a respectable 10th overall in passing yards allowed (190.7 ypg), although the secondary hasn't been the big-play contingent it was a year ago. Carolina's quality cornerback duo of Chris Gamble (56 tackles, 2 INT) and Ken Lucas (27 tackles, 2 INT) has battled injuries throughout the season, which has provided increased playing time for promising youngster Richard Marshall (72 tackles, 3 INT, 10 PBU). Rushing the passer, normally an area of strength for Carolina, has been a problem during the current losing streak, mostly because superstar Julius Peppers (55 tackles, 11 sacks, 3 forced fumbles) has been held in check lately. The All-Pro end has failed to register a sack in five consecutive games. Compounding matters is the season-ending knee injury that veteran Mike Rucker (39 tackles, 5 sacks) suffered during last week's loss. Dependable reserve Al Wallace (21 tackles, 2 sacks) will start opposite Peppers in Rucker's place.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Atlanta has plenty of incentive for this game that goes beyond the obvious playoff ramifications. The Panthers humiliated the Falcons at the Georgia Dome in the 2005 regular-season finale, a loss that was a driving force for Atlanta's relatively easy 20-6 triumph at Carolina in Week 1. The Panthers' lack of effectiveness on offense and recent struggles stopping the run should allow the Falcons to control the clock and grind out a methodical win much like the season-opener. Weinke's dubious credentials under center and Carolina's history of not playing well in the Georgia Dome, where the Panthers had lost seven straight prior to last year's breakthrough, don't inspire confidence for the visitors either.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Falcons 20, Panthers 10
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Albert Pujols to be This Year's Home Run Champ Says Online Sportsbook
Barry Bonds is a 50-1 long shot to be this year's home run champ odds. The favorite to be this year's home run champ is none other than Albert Pujols, however.
Now that Barry Bonds is signed and in Giants camp, it is on to his pursuit of all of sports most prestigious records: the all-time home run mark. Bonds sits just 21 homers shy of tying Hank Aaron for the career mark at 755. Word out of Giants’ camp is that Bonds is the healthiest he has been in a few years. Bonds is just two seasons removed from his injury riddled 2005 campaign where he played in only 14 games and hit only 5 home runs. He did come back last year and had a solid season hitting .270 with 26 bombs. All eyes will be on Bonds this spring and summer not only because of his home run chase but his highly publicized steroid abuse allegations. If and when Bonds breaks the record, he surely will not get the positive attention one should for breaking a record that was once thought of as “unbreakable”. Despite Bonds decent season last year, he is just 50-1 at MySportsbook.com to lead the MLB in long balls this season.
Not surprisingly, the favorites to go deep the most times this season are Albert Pujols 5-1, Ryan Howard 6-1, David Ortiz 8-1 and Alex Rodriguez 12-1. With 49 homers, Pujols finished second in the National League behind Howard (58). Pujols is considered the favorite due to the consistent power numbers that he has posted since breaking into the league in 2001. Also one must consider the fact that he played in 16 fewer games then Howard did due to an injury. Howard smashed 58 homers in his first complete season of big league play en route to the National League MVP odds award. He silenced his critics by successfully hitting left-handed pitching. Howard also displayed the ability to use his power to the opposite field. Two attributes which should keep Howard amongst the league leaders in long balls for years to come. From the American League representatives, David Ortiz leads the field. Ortiz was second in the majors last year with 54 home runs. Except for 1999 when he only played in 10 games, Ortiz has improved on his home run numbers each year he has been in the majors (1997).
Be sure to log onto online sports betting site MySportsbook.com to check out the odds for who will lead the MLB in home runs this season. Below is just a sample of the players listed. With the highest credit card rates in the industry, MySportsbook.com is the place to bet on baseball this summer.
World Series odds
Adam Dunn 15-1
Albert Pujols 5-1
Alex Rodriguez 12-1
Alfonso Soriano 15-1
Andruw Jones 25-1
Barry Bonds 50-1
Carlos Delgado 40-1
David Ortiz 8-1
Jermaine Dye 40-1
Ken Griffey Jr. 100-1
Lance Berkman 40-1
Manny Ramirez 20-1
Richie Sexson 40-1
Ryan Howard 6-1
Travis Hafner 20-1
Vladimir Guerrero 40-1
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MySportsbook.com: New College Football Clock Rules Examined
Coaches and bettors alike are desperate to make sense of the new time-keeping rules on the NCAA gridiron. One of the big stories to come out of the Ohio State-Texas clash last weekend was Texas coach Mack Brown's criticism of the NCAA's new clock rules that are intended to shorten the duration of college football games, therefore affecting college football betting.
"They scored with six minutes left and the game was over before we had a chance to do anything," Brown told ESPN.com. "I really hope whoever made these changes will go back and look them over."
Sure, it might be sour grapes; the Buckeyes thoroughly trounced the defending national champion Longhorns 24-7. However, Brown isn't alone in giving the changes their due thought. Bettors are also wondering about them, albeit for a completely different reason. Most experts agree that the changes will result in games being shortened by anywhere from 10 to 20 plays. The obvious consequence is lower scores, with more time rolling off the clock during changes of possession. (The Ohio State-Texas game flew well under the total of 52.)
According to research at the online sportsbook MySportsbook.com, more than 18 plays a game disappeared last weekend into thin air. That's a 10-percent reduction. In 2005, a typical game had 168.58 plays. For 2007 already, it's down to 150.26.
As a result, teams combined to gain an average of about 100 fewer yards a game last weekend versus the 2005 openers. Scoring was also down by about 4.5 points (attention Las Vegas sports lines).
Of course, oddsmakers were able to adjust to the changes before the season started. Proof of that came as the over went a balanced 8-9 at My Sportsbook on Saturday.
Other angles to consider:A shorter game should theoretically result in shorter lines. Whereas Team A might have been a 14-point favorite in a 168-play game (last year), if there are 10 percent less snaps in 2007, the line should also be reduced by 10 percent (to 13 or 12.5). Of course, this is an over-simplification of the matter, but something to keep in mind.
Less possessions means a better chance the game will be decided by three or seven points. For example, what might have been a 20-10 final score in 2005 may end at
17-10 in 2007. Granted, a 24-17 game last year might end at 21-17 these days, but the former - a three- or seven-point advantage being preserved as opposed to created - is the most likely scenario.
*UPDATE* - Sept. 25, 2007
New Clock Rules Boon for online bookmakers
By adjusting the time-keeping rules to shorten the duration of college football games, the NCAA hoped to make its product more enjoyable for the fans. While the NCAA's success in this regard is still up for debate, bookmakers couldn't be happier with the results.
"We are seeing a massive jump in college football betting," noted the MySportsbook.com management team. "With all the early Saturday games (12 a.m. ET) ending before the second wave begins (3:30 p.m. ET) - something that didn't always happen before the changes - bettors are now able to re-invest their winnings from the morning session in the afternoon games."
While not all bettors will choose to roll over their winnings, it doesn't take much for an impact to be seen on the bottom line. "Not all of the millions of dollars in morning payouts get re-bet. In fact, it's probably only 10 to 20 percent," noted the sportsbook management team. "Still, the increased football betting lines window will create a ton of growth for us over the course of the season."
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