Niners Need Win Over Cardinals, Help From Seahawks
Football Betting Lines
12/22/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - If any member of the San Francisco 49ers' player roster, coaching staff, or front office claims not to be paying attention to the out- of-town scoreboard on Sunday afternoon, they're lying.
While the 49ers (6-8) do battle with the Arizona Cardinals (4-10) at Monster Park, the NFC West-leading Seattle Seahawks (8-6) will be entertaining the San Diego Chargers (12-2) roughly 800 miles to the north. A victory for the Niners coupled with a loss for the Seahawks will give Week 17 definite playoff meaning for the San Francisco franchise, which is major news for an organization just recently removed from a stretch of 35 losses in 45 games.
The new-found excitement in the City by the Bay comes on the heels of last Thursday's 24-14 win at Seattle, a victory that completed the Niners' home- and-home sweep of the reigning NFC Champions and kept Mike Nolan's team in the hunt for the NFC West title. If things go according to plan Sunday, San Francisco would be one game back with one to play.
The 49ers travel to meet Denver in Week 17, while the Seahawks take one of the NFL's longest trips to Tampa Bay. Though it is conceivable that an 8-8 San Francisco team could earn a Wild Card berth through some convoluted tie- breaking scenario, a two-game stretch of losses for Seattle is the least mind- bending way for the 49ers to get back to the postseason for the first time since 2002.
Without a win over Arizona, however, the point will be moot, and the Niners are not sufficiently dominant at this stage to overlook any opponent. The Cardinals also have a win of recent vintage over the Seahawks, a 27-21 victory in Week 14, but Dennis Green's club followed up a 3-1 stretch with last Sunday's 37-20 home loss to the Broncos.
SERIES HISTORY
San Francisco has a 17-13 lead in its all-time series with the Cardinals, but has dropped three in a row to Arizona. The Cardinals opened University of Phoenix Stadium with a 34-27 win over San Francisco in Week 1, and also swept a pair of games against its NFC West rival last season. The Niners were 17-10 losers when Arizona visited Monster Park in Week 13. Prior to 2005, the 49ers had prevailed in eight of the previous nine head-to-head meetings. The Niners won by identical 31-28 marks, both in overtime, in a 2004 home-and-home.
Green is 5-7 in his career against San Francisco, including 3-2 since taking over in Arizona in 2004. Green's Vikings were 38-22 losers to the 49ers in a 1997 NFC Divisional Playoff. Green was an assistant with San Francisco in 1979, and again from 1986 to 1988. San Francisco's Nolan is 0-3 against both Green and the Cardinals as a head coach.
CARDINALS OFFENSE VS. 49ERS DEFENSE
It would take an extraordinary effort in his final two games, but Cardinals rookie quarterback Matt Leinart (2385 passing yards, 10 TD, 12 INT) is within reachable distance of the 3,000-yard plateau, which would make him the first Arizona signal-caller since Jake Plummer in 2001 to hit that number. Peyton Manning is the only other quarterback in NFL history to go over 3,000 in his rookie season, doing so in 16 games as opposed to what would be 13 for Leinart. The 2004 Heisman winner, who has a 400-yard game to his credit already this season, would need to average 307.5 passing yards in his final two games to break 3,000. Last week, Leinart threw for 214 yards with two interceptions, helping wideout Anquan Boldin (75 receptions, 4 TD) cross the 1,000-yard barrier for the third time in his four-year career. Fellow receiver Larry Fitzgerald (61 receptions, 4 TD), who had a team-best 77 yards on five grabs against Denver, needs 180 yards over his final two contests to break 1,000 for a second straight year. Third receiver Bryant Johnson (33 receptions, 4 TD) has done a solid job all season. The Arizona line has surrendered 32 sacks on the campaign, including three last Sunday.
The 49ers rank just 27th in the league against the pass (222.3 yards per game), but the secondary has shown a propensity for playmaking during the season's second half. Cornerback Shawntae Spencer (55 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) and safety Mark Roman (53 tackles, 1 INT) both had interceptions off of the Seahawks' Matt Hasselbeck last week, and corner Walt Harris (52 tackles, 6 INT, 1 sack), who ranks among NFL leaders with six picks, had a forced fumble. The pass rush ranks near the bottom of the league with just 29 sacks, but did break through to Hasselbeck three times in a winning effort. Rookie pass rusher Manny Lawson (50 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT) notched one of the sacks. Linebacker Brandon Moore (6.5 sacks) and defensive lineman Bryant Young (5.5 sacks) are tops on the team at getting to the quarterback.
Although it looked at times this season like he might not reach the milestone, Cardinals running back Edgerrin James (988 rushing yards, 5 TD, 37 receptions) is just 12 yards shy of becoming Arizona's first 1,000-yard rusher since Adrian Murrell in 1998. James failed to extend his string of 100-yard games to three last week, when the Broncos limited him to 63 yards on 14 carries, but James did score his fifth touchdown of the year in the game. The ex-Colt rushed 26 times for 73 yards and a score against the 49ers in Week 1. Backup Marcel Shipp (28 rushing yards, 3 TD), who made headlines with a three- touchdown game against the Rams in Week 13, missed the Denver tilt with sore ribs but is set to return on Sunday. The Cardinals are tied for 30th in the league in rushing offense (79.8 yards per game), and dead last in yards per carry (3.1).
The 49ers rank 18th in the league against the rush (121.3 yards per game), and come off a week in which they held reigning NFL MVP Shaun Alexander to 73 yards on 23 carries (3.2 yards per attempt). The push was led by the front line, where Young (47 tackles) and fellow lineman Melvin Oliver (37 tackles) combined for 10 tackles. Moore paced the linebackers with 10 stops of his own, and that line of defense will get a break if Derek Smith (66 tackles), who led San Francisco in stops before suffering a hamstring injury against the Saints in Week 13, is able to return. Smith is regarded as questionable for this week.
49ERS OFFENSE VS. CARDINALS DEFENSE
The ascendancy of 49ers running back Frank Gore (1491 rushing yards, 53 receptions, 7 TD) continued on Tuesday, when the second-year-pro was selected to start for the NFC in the 2007 Pro Bowl. Gore leads the NFC in rushing as Week 16 begins, and is 80 yards shy of breaking the franchise single-season record of 1,570, set by Garrison Hearst in 1998. The Miami-Florida product has gone over 100 yards in five of his last six games, including his 29-carry, 144-yard, one-touchdown effort in Seattle last Thursday. Gore, who also had a touchdown catch last week, began his season with an 87-yard, two-TD game against the Cardinals in Week 1, but also lost a fumble in that defeat. Short- yardage back Michael Robinson's (116 rushing yards, 2 TD, 7 receptions) only carry against the Seahawks went for 33 yards and set up a Joe Nedney field goal.
Gore will be operating against an Arizona defense that ranks just 16th in the league against the run (119.9 yards per game), but did a credible job against Denver and its vaunted zone-blocking scheme last Sunday. Broncos running backs Tatum Bell and Mike Bell combined for just 90 yards on 34 carries (2.7 yards per carry), though the latter Bell did help seal the Cardinals' epitaph with two fourth-quarter touchdown runs. The linebacking crew of Gerald Hayes (93 tackles, 3 INT, 1 sack) in the middle and Orlando Huff (57 tackles) and Karlos Dansby (65 tackles, 5 sacks) on the outside was extremely active in the loss, with Huff posting a game-high 12 tackles and Hayes and Dansby notching eight stops each. Tackles Darnell Dockett (49 tackles, 2 sacks, 1 INT) and Kendrick Clancy (24 tackles, 1 sack) will be among those looking to slow Gore at the point of attack.
San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith (2506 passing yards, 15 TD, 14 INT) didn't put up eye-popping numbers in last week's win over the Seahawks, but his fourth-quarter performance was held up as a coming-of-age moment. Smith led three touchdown drives to turn a 7-3 deficit to a 24-7 lead, throwing back-to-back scoring strikes to Vernon Davis (13 receptions, 3 TD) and Frank Gore and capping the night with a back-breaking 18-yard TD run in the waning moments. For the night, the 2005 No. 1 overall pick completed 14-of-25 passes for 162 yards and two scores. No. 1 wideout Antonio Bryant (40 receptions, 3 TD) had a quiet evening with two catches for 16 yards, but No. 2 receiver Arnaz Battle (48 receptions, 3 TD) came up big with a career-high 97 yards on five grabs. Bryant went for 114 yards against Arizona in Week 1, but has just one more 100-yard game since. Davis has a TD in each of his last two contests. The San Francisco offensive line has surrendered 27 sacks on the year, but did not give one up last week.
Smith should be able to find some holes in an Arizona defense that ranks 30th in the NFL (235.9 yards per game) against aerial attacks, and allowed Broncos quarterback Jay Cutler to have the game of his young career last Sunday. Cutler threw for 261 yards and a pair of touchdowns with an interception versus the Cardinals, with his 54-yard touchdown pass to Javon Walker early in the first quarter setting the tone for the Arizona loss. Cornerbacks Antrel Rolle (81 tackles) and David Macklin (34 tackles, 1 INT) will have to do a better job against the likes of Bryant and Battle this week, and safeties Adrian Wilson (76 tackles, 4 sacks, 4 INT) and Robert Griffith (66 tackles, 3 INT) must lend the requisite support. Griffith had the team's only interception off of Cutler last week. Wilson and receiver Anquan Boldin were both named to the NFC Pro Bowl squad on Tuesday. The Arizona pass rush is led by ends Chike Okeafor (40 tackles, 6.5 sacks) and Antonio Smith (24 tackles, 2.5 sacks), both of whom registered an impact against Denver. Okeafor had a sack and two forced fumbles in the loss, and one of those fumbles was picked up by Smith for a four-yard touchdown return.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
The 49ers have yet to show that they can win a game they are widely expected to win, which makes this week's meeting with the Cardinals somewhat worrying. In order for San Francisco to take the next step, flexing its muscles against an inferior opponent on its home field is a must. Look for the 49ers to come out with enough intensity and confidence to overcome any mistakes that a still-young team will undoubtedly make, and look for Nolan's club to head into Week 17 with a shot to play in January.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: 49ers 20, Cardinals 15
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Super Bowl 2009 Betting
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositionsUnderdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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