Stampeders play host to Blue Bombers
Football Betting Lines
07/28/2010 - Calgary, AB (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Having knocked off the last unbeaten club in the CFL during the fourth week of the 2010 season, the Calgary Stampeders now try to better their position atop the Western Division standings as they clash with the Winnipeg Blue Bombers at McMahon Stadium on Saturday night.
For the Stamps, last week's meeting with Saskatchewan was tough through the first 30 minutes, but once the second half began the entire complexion of the game changed and Calgary ran away with an easy 40-20 victory. Henry Burris, who was intercepted four times in the loss to Toronto a week earlier, came alive this time around by throwing for 285 yards and four touchdowns, while surviving a pair of interceptions.
Doing most of the damage down the field for Burris and the Stamps was Romby Bryant who caught seven balls for 116 yards and a pair of touchdowns, his efforts earning him Offensive Player of the Week honors on Tuesday. Not to be overlooked was running back Joffrey Reynolds who carried the ball 15 times for a game-high 93 yards and a score. Reynolds, who is currently third in the league in rushing with 351 yards on 56 attempts, has proven in recent years that he can carry much of the rushing burden for a team, having scored a combined 21 rushing TDs the last two seasons.
As for the Blue Bombers, they set up against a winless Edmonton team at home last week and, even though the host team was operating without regular starter Buck Pierce at quarterback, the odds were still heavily in favor of Winnipeg. Stepping in for Pierce, who was sidelined with a knee injury, was Steven Jyles who completed 14-of-22 passes for 267 yards and a touchdown. Granted, Jyles was sacked twice and picked off two times, but he made up for that by filling the running shoes left by Pierce, gaining 63 yards and scoring twice himself on just eight attempts.
Running back Fred Reid accounted for another 69 yards and a score on 16 carries for the Bombers as they completely dominated a weak Eskimos team in a 47-21 final. Terence Jeffers-Harris, who caught the lone TD pass from Jyles, finished with 97 yards on a mere three catches, his scoring play covering a thrilling 46 yards in which Jyles was forced to scramble out of the pocket and the receiver then ran the width of the field to make it into the corner of the end zone.
Getting Winnipeg off on the right foot in the meeting last week was Moton Hopkins who intercepted a Ricky Ray pass in the first quarter and returned it 36 yards to the end zone to put the Bombers ahead and give them the momentum to carry them through the entire matchup.
Because of players like Hopkins, the pass defense for the Blue Bombers is at the top of the charts in the league entering the fifth week, allowing just 238.5 ypg, although opponents have still found a way to complete 61.2 percent of their attempts against the Bombers secondary. Winnipeg has been rather strong against the run as well, permitting just 102 ypg to rank third in the league at this stage. However, even though the stats seem to lean in favor of Winnipeg in several areas, the fact remains that the team is giving up a hefty 28.5 ppg at the moment.
In contrast, Calgary's scoring defense is beyond reproach, allowing just 21.2 ppg to lead the CFL.
Throw out the one game in which Burris tossed those four interceptions, and the numbers for the quarterback look a whole lot brighter. He currently leads the league in TD passes with nine and has completed 62.2 percent of his attempts. However, because of those league-high eight picks, Burris has an efficiency rating of just 81.7.
With Bryant, who is tied for the league high with four TD catches, on his side Burris is only going to get better as the year goes on. Making it even easier for the signal-caller is Reynolds coming out of the backfield, averaging close to six and a half yards per carry as he ranks third in the league with 351 yards overall.
Dating back to 1945 and only taking into account regular-season meetings, Calgary owns a 94-89 edge in the series with the Blue Bombers. The most recent regular-season meeting went to the Stamps in a 31-23 decision at home. As a result, Calgary has taken two of the last three encounters with the Bombers.
These teams are set to finish off the 2010 regular season against each other in Winnipeg, their only other scheduled meeting of this season.
After last week's game, Burris should have the sort of confidence he needs to get him through a meeting such as this. The only question for the Stamps is how well their run defense is going to perform against an aggressive Winnipeg squad that seems to thrive on the ground.
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Horse Betting
(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).
The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.
"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."
Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.
"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."
When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:
CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.
DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.
PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.
You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.
"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."
Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.
(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)
Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."
But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."
Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."
Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."
All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.
In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.
"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."
To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.
Super Bowl 2009 Betting
Super Bowl 2009 Betting propositionsUnderdog bettors love the Super Bowl and, history suggests, the underdogs love them back. And the big dogs bite harder.
Even so, there is a warning in store for Super Bowl gamblers who must love dogs: The Arizona Cardinals Super Bowl betting lines might not be enough of a Cinderella to make it worth your while.
Although the Cardinals were widely panned as one of the worst division winners and least playoff-worthy teams in recent memory, their trip to Super Bowl XLIII Jan. 31 in Tampa against the Pittsburgh Steelers Super Bowl betting lines comes with a little more respect from the oddsmakers than you might imagine. They are a 7-point underdog at most sports books.
If you count yourself among those who covet the big dog in the big game, this isn’t exactly great news. You should have been hoping for more points. This is because the facts show that the bigger the dog, the better the bet in the Super Bowl.
Case in point: Over the past 13 seasons, double-figure underdogs in the Super Bowl are 4-0-1 ATS and have won the past three outright. In fact, the last double-digit chalk to do the deed for bettors was the 1995 San Francisco 49ers, who managed to beat the astounding 19-point spot afforded backers of the San Diego Chargers in the 49-26 romp in Super Bowl XXIX.
By contrast, 7-point favorites are 2-1-1 ATS in the same span, the last such contest resulting a cover grinded out by the Colts in their 29-17 win over the Bears two seasons ago in Super Bowl XLI.
In 2004, the Patriots failed to cover the number in their 32-29 triumph over the Carolina Panthers in Super Bowl props while the Rams and Titans gave everyone a refund in 2000 after the Rams posted a 23-16 win as a seven-point favorite.
So while Arizona’s run has included impressive upsets as a 10-point road underdog to the Carolina Panthers and Sunday’s 32-25 win in the NFC championship game to the 4-point favored Philadelphia Eagles, their long-shot story lacks a bit of the David vs. Goliath storyline of past Super Bowl underdogs.
While the seven-point spread represents a significant gap in the perception of strength between the two teams, it is far from monumental. For example, last season the Giants were the wild-card afterthought turned road-warrior buzzsaw, with stunning wins over the Buccaneers, Cowboys and Packers to earn their place in the Super Bowl.
There, they played spoiler to New England’s bid to become the first 19-0 team in NFL history and cemented their place in sports betting lore with a 17-14 win as a 12.5-point underdog.
In other words, the Cardinals appear to have their work cut out for them as a mid-range underdog. But in homage to the spread beaters who have come before them, here is a brief look back at recent colossal upsets in the Super Bowl:
SB XLII -- 2008 -- New York Giants 17, New England Patriots 14 (Giants +12.5) – Eli Manning’s 13-yard touchdown pass to Plaxico Burress in the final minute clinched the historic upset for the Giants, who used a masterful defensive plan to slow down Tom Brady and the previously undefeated New England Patriots.
XXXVI -- 2002 -- Patriots 20, Rams 17 (Patriots +14) – This was the coming out party for the aforementioned Brady, who went from obscure sixth-round draft pick to Super Bowl hero in one fell swoop. He led the game-winning drive in the final minute – eschewing analyst John Madden’s advice to take a knee and play for overtime – leading to Adam Vinatieri’s memorable 48-yard field goal that split the uprights as time expired.
XXXII 1998 Broncos 31, Packers 24 (Denver +12) – The first of John Elway’s two consecutive Super Bowl titles to put an end to his Hall of Fame career was an upset for the ages. The Broncos used the determination of Elway and a 157-yard, three-touchdown performance from Terrell Davis to turn back Brett Favre and the heavily favored Packers.
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